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Tuesday, November 8, 2011

2011 Millage Election Live Update.

9:03 PM
City of Bloomfield Hills Blog projects Library Millage will pass with 54% (571 Yes to 487 No ) vote margin.

In  the 2010 election the Library millage received 800 votes or 40% of the total for dreadfully vague and terribly expensive proposal that went  down to defeat in a 60% to 40% landslide. This year they won't get 800 votes or even 600 but loyalty to the cause and a good proposal from a nice library will deliver the high fives.The "No" voters,the silent majority last year will make it close but apathy has dwindled their 1200 vote ranks to less than half that. The Joker in the deck is the absentee ballots and this model assumes they will behave like their "go to the polls neighbors .".Maybe. Maybe not. While Precinct 1 (Hunt Club and condos) had  a 100 vote margin over precinct 2 (Rudgate, Cranbrook Center City) that's rather small considering the Hunt Club's population density. In a low turn out election there is always room for surprises. The Key is determining the finite number of people who want library services. That number this year is not 800 and is not 400. High fives seems about right and this year it will be enough to win.

The polls are closed. As the sign indicates the votes are being counted.The process according to Amy Burton City Clerk can take  awhile, Why ? Because of all the checks and double checks. After accuracy is insured the the results are driven to the County offices in Pontiac. Then they are made available on line and to the media. the final vote people by precinct is as follows.
Precinct 1 City Hall Fire station 286
Precinct 2 Congressional Church 186
The total live vote is 472 votes
The absentee ballot total we received at  6:15  was 586.  We were unable to receive a final submission before the absentee votes went behind closed doors. We believe there initially 641 given out. A maximum of 55 absentee votes possibly could have been submitted in the last couple of hours.
The total election assuming 586 absentee votes is 1058 slightly less than the respectable 1100 we mentioned earlier.We use these vote totals to make our projections.We do not do exit polling. Sad but true we don't know how. We may not be accurate but we are always good for a laugh
The View from City Hall on Election Night

6:15 Drive Time Vote
It is a warm spring like November evening. Tomorrow it may snow.  If you haven't voted yet there is still time. The Polls are still open till 8pm and the stakes are high.
Want the  library  millage to pass ?  Well if you don't vote and the library millage fails think of what you will lose. Think of how you could replace it and how much that would cost.
Don't care for the millage ? Don't vote and if the millage passes and your house is of median value in three years at a $180 a year you'll be out $540 at the end of the three year contract.
Like they say drive a little and save a lot. There are no lines and no waiting.
Precinct 1 has had  249 votes an increase of  83 since last report this afternoon,
Prescient 2 has 152 voters an increase of 51 votes.
The absentee vote total is currently 586.
The total vote count is 987

Precinct 1  about 3pm.One voter, five  elections workers a photographer from the Oakland Press AND NO WAITING !

Early Afternoon Voting
At 3pm Precinct one  (City Hall) is reporting 166 total Votes or more than double morning figure of 81.
Precinct two (Congressional Church on Cranbrook is reporting 101 total voters  or double a 41 vote morning.

Absentee turns ins have not changed much. 100  or votes remain out. 544 have been cast.

811 votes have so far been cast. The evening drive home and the after dinner vote will be crucial. 266  live votes will match the number cast this morning and bring the total with( a few \more absentees) to 1100. If the twilight and evening live vote were to double  the daylight votes a respectable  1500 votes might by a very optimistic outcome.

The key factor is who is voting and why. Last November the "Yes Library" vote was 800 and the "No" vote was 1200. Those numbers won't be equaled today barring a miracle. If the numbers are cut in half due to weather and apathy you have the same 400/600 split with as many as 900 votes still out there. If you assume that  library voters are less apathetic then others  a 600/600 squeaker could be decided with a small vote total this evening.
The point is your vote counts and could make the difference.Please cast it this evening if you have not yet already done so.
Morning Vote Disappointing
At 10 :30 am 81 voters have voted at city hall (precinct 1) and 41 have voted at the Congressional  Church  off Cranbrook Road more or less at Woodward. (precinct 2). The two to one turn out for the precincts  is about right. Precinct 1  includes the city's most densely populated area ,colloquially  called the "Hunt Club.". The neighborhood  is also a major area of  pro library millage support.  Precinct 2  is walkable from Cranbrook and many residents who live in the area do just that. Larger homes and a larger millage cost makes this area more likely to produce "No" votes.

Regardless 120 votes in the morning rush is a pathetic turn out . Yes it rained and there was fog but there was no  monsoon.

Absentee votes  now total  563 out of 641 distributed. The current election may the headed for a record low library millage turn out. In 2009 in the closest millage election to date 1075 votes were cast. In 1996 and 2010  over 2000 votes were cast.

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